Tamilnadu has been one of the top two States contributing seats to a Congress led pre-poll alliance in every election that brought the party to power, the news media records shows. In the last three decades, every
Congress victory at the Centre has involved the party winning nearly 30 or more seats in Tamilnadu, always with an ally While Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra were the next two big contributors to the Congress tally, the wins in the former came without an ally and in Maharashtra, in alliance with NCP.
Tamil Nadu’s centrality to Congress success since the late 1980s has been crucial in forming Congress govt in centre.Congress plus allies got 36 (1980), 37 (1984),38 (1989),39 (1991) show the data with the Election Commission.
While in the next three elections in the year 1996 and 1998 Congress drew blank with zero seats and in 1999 Congress got only 2 seats and in all these three occasion Congress could not form the government , and these were the only ones in which the party did poorly in Tamilnadu.The Congress is fighting it alone this year with the previous ally DMK has broken away and in doldrums with internal conflict and division.
Tamilnadu as well the Seemaandhra, the two main bastion contributing heavily to Congress pool are broken and demoralised house, with all the leading leaders are either split away or are reluctant to fight election fearing defeat, even the heavyweight P.Chidambaram the most glaring example. Few hopes Congress will hardly touch even to 5 this time from the two states and this will be crucial negativity for Congress and UPA 3 this time .
Moreover Congress success in other South state is quite uncertain as BJP with the allies in changed circumstances is rejuvenated in both Karnataka and Telangana, while Kerala may give be a divided house changing colours.
INDIA HONEST had predicted long back in November 2013 that the Modi wave blowing at that time will soon become huge Typhoon in South by the time election comes closer,as it will be more convenient for it to occupy the gap created by others in the space.
IH sees a complete setback for Congress led UPA3, as the Congress party is seen to be fast loosing ground in central and north India, but a dismal wash out in South will make any hope of UPA3 impossible.