Change in Countries With Largest Christian Populations
Christians are expected to keep pace with global population growth largely due to their expected growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
Christians are expected to keep pace with global population growth largely due to their expected growth in sub-Saharan Africa.
Of the 10 countries with the largest Christian populations in 2010, six are expected to decline as a share of the global population between 2010 and 2050. But three African countries (Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia), as well as the Philippines, are each expected to account for a larger share of the world’s population in the decades ahead.
Four countries had more than 100 million Christians in 2010: the United States (243 million), Brazil (173 million), Mexico (108 million) and Russia (105 million).
Most of the 10 countries with the largest Christian populations in 2010 were majority-Christian countries. In fact, many of these countries had large Christian majorities, including the United States (78% in 2010) and Brazil (89%). One exception is China, where Christians made up only 5% of the population. Also, even though there were a large number of Christians living in Nigeria in 2010 (78 million), they were slightly less than half of Nigeria’s population (49%).
About 11% of the world’s Christians lived in the United States as of 2010, while about 8% lived in Brazil and 5% in Mexico. All in all, nearly half (48%) of the world’s Christians lived in the 10 countries with the largest Christian populations.
By 2050, the list of the 10 countries with the largest Christian populations is anticipated to change considerably. The United States and Brazil are expected to remain atop the list, but Mexico is projected to fall from third to sixth and Russia is expected to drop from fourth to eighth. Germany and China are not expected to appear on the 2050 list.
Nigeria (155 million Christians as of 2050), the Philippines (144 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (142 million) and Ethiopia (85 million) each are expected to rise at least one spot on the list. In fact, Nigeria is projected to have the world’s third-largest Christian population in 2050, even though Christians are projected to make up only 39% of Nigeria’s 2050 population.
Two other nations in sub-Saharan Africa are forecast to join the list: Tanzania, with 94 million Christians in 2050, and Uganda (81 million).
Similar to 2010, nearly half (47%) of the world’s 2050 Christian population is expected to be found in these 10 countries. In 2050, no single country is forecast to have more than 10% of the world’s Christian population.
