Assam Assembly Elections 2016: Assamese are minority, Muslims are largest electoral group in this poll battle!
Out of the 32 million strong population, only 10 million people are ethnic Assamese, whereas, the remaining 22 million of the population are 'outsiders'.......By Mohammed Uzair Shaikh.
Demography in Assam is a cause of concern for all those firmly believing in the mantra of Jai Aai Ahom. The ethnic Assamese population is far less compared to the number of migrants (including Bangladeshi immigrants) residing in the state. As per the electoral roll published in January 2016, the indigenous population is now a minority, and the ‘settlers’ are the ones in majority.( Assam Assembly Elections 2016 opinion poll: Congress to win 40 seats, BJP-AGP lag behind, AIUDF will be the kingmaker!)
Out of the 32 million strong population, only 10 million people are ethnic Assamese, whereas, the remaining 22 million of the population are ‘outsiders’. The list of these migrants include – Muslims, Bengali Hindus, Bangladeshis and tea plantation workers mostly hailing from Jharkhand. The Muslims are the largest single community residing in the region, with a population of 34 per cent. None of them have ethnic ties with Assam. Out of the 22 million migrants, 11 million are Muslims, who have been accorded voting rights. The votes of migrant population would play a key role in the second phase of voting, since they mostly reside in the region of Lower Assam which is going to polls on Monday.
Here is the segment-wise breakdown of migrant population:
| Muslims | 11 million |
| Bengali Hindus | 6 million |
| Tea plantation workers | 5 million |
While the votes of Muslim community would be divided between Badruddin Ajmal’s AIUDF and Tarun Gogoi-led Congress, Bengali Hindus are expected to firmly rally behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The tea plantation workers are key voters in the upcoming polls as they could swing to either sides. The impact of Left front could not be ignored, as some the tea-plantation workers have long been complaining of exploitation.
Ethnic Assamese population
| Ahom | 2 million |
| Bodo | 1.4 million |
| Christians | 1.4 million |
| Mishing | 0.6 million |
| Others | 1.6 million |
This section of voters are expected to go with BJP’s regional allies – Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). The latter will gain all the Bodo community votes. Congress is expected to maintain its strong grip over the Ahom community, to which Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi belongs.
BJP has attempted to woo the ethnic Assamese voters by promising to revisit the terms of Assam Accord of 1971, which turned many of the Bangladeshi Muslims into the legal citizens. As this is the brightest opportunity for the BJP to form government in the state, it has left no stone unturned. In the words of former Congressman (now BJP strategist) Himanta Biswa Sarma, “this is the last chance to save the Assamese identity.”