Lalu Prasad is definitely a worried man in his make or break comeback expedition. While his supporters are convinced that he was a victim of injustice and but the Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi expressed interest in the RJD only as “an idea”. Lalu Prasad had to meet Sonia Gandhi for the second time to seal an alliance with the Congress, to stop his Yadav and Muslim voters from straying towards the JD (U) and the BJP .Now Lalu Prasad intends to move soon among his people, mobilising them and asking for votes, trying to break the momentum of the BJP/JD (U)’s vigorous campaign among the Yadavs.
But, there was bigger setback on store, that may come with the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Ram Vilas Paswan signalling readiness to tie up with the NDA ahead of the 2014 general elections, giving the BJP a possible prominent Dalit leader as a poll ally. LJP leader Surajbhan believe a tie up with BJP could reap richer electoral harvest,when he said, “We have decided to tie up with BJP... every thing has been finalised,”.
Though Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan said nothing was final, but it is evident that after LJP's poor show in the 2009 polls and in the 2010 assembly elections, this could be a do-or-die battle for Paswan. But still the deal is not done and again it may turn out to be a repeat of a similar Sharad Pawar gimmick to gain more seats from the old alliance, but it is a known fact that Paswan faces a difficult election like 2009, and wants to be on the right side, along with the most expected winner.
This one possible setback was not enough for Lalu, as more ground report by the media suggests of a big dent in his loyal Yadav vote-bank, as Prashant Jha reported in a study note, "A Yadav dilemma in Bihar: support Lalu or Narendra Modi " ?
"Ram Yadav's father was the mukhiya of Mohanpur village in Madhubani , the heart of Mithilanchal in north Bihar for forty years, and he sacrificed much to get elected as the new mukhiya of his ancestral village. But today, he struggles with a political dilemma shared by many in his community. 70% Yadavs are still with Lalu Prasad, having sympathy for his jail stint.He argues, when country with 175,000 lakh crore worth corruption scams by UPA/Congress, why lock in someone for an old scam of 500 crore?"
But the hard core RJD supporter confirms that there is a change from the past, where almost 100% of the community backed Lalu. "There is a 30% dent, and that is because many Yadavs feel that Narendra Modi must be tested once." He claims this is because Modi does not have a family, and there is little chance of him accumulating wealth for his relatives."
"Yadav's dilemma is more intense because he has been, for a long time, associated with Baba Ramdev, who is himself of Yadav origin. "I have even gone to Haridwar. And Ramdev Maharaj is totally with Modi." An additional factor for him is that the elected BJP MP from Madhubani, Hukum Deo Yadav, has been supportive. "He has helped sanction four roads in my area and cooperated each time I have asked for support. So there is no reason to go against BJP." "There is confusion," he says wistfully.
The report deals with few others also,and one Mahakant Yadav of the RJD admits that there is a churning in the community, with a section keen to test Modi once. "I am with Laluji, but the younger lot is getting restless. My estimate is 25%, one-fourth of Yadav vote, will go to BJP this time."
Arun Kumar Bhandari of Mali caste, which falls in the extremely backward class category, the mainstay of Kumar's social coalition, said,"My formula is simple. I will vote BJP for the Centre, and Nitish for the state. Nitish won't become PM, so why waste a vote on him? But we need him in Bihar." This will result bigger setback for Nitish, already a demoralised person, after refused alliance by the Congress ."
INDIA HONEST had predicted long back that this present journey of the resurgent Narendra Modi for the NDA alliance victory in 2014 election, has much greater strength and steam. This positivity is bound to grow much rapidly as the D-date comes nearer and nearer, as most including the fringe sitter will best like to be seen with the possible winning side. People's mood has turned strongly in NDA favour, and the wise politicians have judged it.