Modi led NDA government will complete one year at the end of May 2015, and that one year will definitely mark a uprising of star that created a new shining page in the history books on India's New changed role in International Relations and Diplomacy.
The year was marked by the invent of an unseen vision of a head of a nation, who in a shortest span of time, even with the most minute iota of past experience, sensitised most of the important political corners of world, more by his strong will and determination to stand India world over, with the highest esteem and regard. Invitation to heads of all neighbours on the first day,and to complete successful visits to most powerful nations and meet most other leaders that stand top in international polity ladder.
India Honest visualised an article in the blog almost three years back in June 2012, "Can an Indian Pivot Work Better for South Asia ?".
(http://creativenewsviews.blogspot.in),
It was then, even with the remotest inclination of a chance that someday NaMo could head India in near future, but that did not stop me from imagining a crucial role that India could play, not only in the South East Asia but as a much bigger role of an upcoming super power role player in international horizon in the near future.Yes it was true then also as you see :
India along with China will be probing hard to hold a title for a World Super Power status in next decades. Though this role is full of difficulty, contradiction and uncertainty, even a regional Super Power Status in south Asia, could be a beneficial conclusion for many in the world, provided " if ", a big if it can materialise ? India along with few of its close neighbours like Bangladesh, Iran, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Myanmar, Srilanka, Thailand, Mauritius and Maldives may come together and join hands, to establish one form of close association for political, economic and mutual trust based strategic bonding. More nations near the region like Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan may add up based on regional similarity and bondage.
India, though not at the best of most friendly relations with many of the nations, even it is one of the better acceptable nations with an advantage of a growing economic power, strong military strength and an amicable neutral command in world politics. The current problems as regards to Afghanistan, Iran and as regards to the new development in Myanmar, India can play a good stabilising role with some systematic approach to each problem by taking the concerned nations on board in confidence and by playing a rational neutral role, having earned a soft goodwill in their relations in the long past.
India is being eyed by both Washington and Beijing, though its inherent objective is not difficult to guess as India has made big improvement in its strategic position particularly in this part of Asia. Without getting provoked by such calls India should go for a more dedicated approach and little bit greater proactive efforts (provided the present government gets some time and thought for important international affairs) in its relationship with others and its new role internationally ,that will make Delhi an appropriate and important pivot point on South Asia’s geopolitical arena.
NATO had set out an exit plan for its "ISAF" forces, from combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2014, which were engaged in "war against global terror". Though the war aiming to eliminate terror elements is still far away from attaining its goal but still India, which was earlier ignored by the US, as it had to keep Pakistan’s sensitivities in mind and had kept India out of Afghanistan, can still play well its assigned role of contributing to economic reconstruction and training Afghan security forces, and now in different ways with bigger objectives.
India-US nuclear agreement in 2005 and huge economic spurt in last one decade has casted a turning point in leveraging the Indian position in world recognition, but a calm and watchful India maintained a prudent choice to remain a marginal player in Afghanistan and South Asia so long.The added economic muscle along with huge naval capabilities and tested military strength has pushed international strategy experts to take note in its utility in the global balance of power, predominantly in the changed context in South Asia.
US relations with the Pakistan leadership and more with the military has become much complicated and frustrating, as visible in US Defence Chief Panetta's utterance against Pakistan recently but still in search of way out, when he said, “the US cannot just walk away from that relationship, we have to continue to find areas for engagement". It shows the gravity of finding an
alternative way out fast, as such it has become more imperative for the US to draw India into Afghanistan, and while it still cannot dream of cutting down the Indian resistance to sending troops to Kabul, but it clearly hopes to step up the military engagement in terms of training and hardware.
But hopefully US new defence strategy can still be merged with the above discussed headline strategy , when India opts to assert its role of a Regional Super Power in the changed geo-political environment, and the impending NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, will be seen by the world and US gaining India as a critical partner in ensuring stability and security in Asia.
The big resistance from outside the group will definitely come from China, which will remain for the foreseeable future a significant economic competitor and foreign policy cum security challenger for India. It is the one major power which reflects directly on India’s activities. With the bigger advent of China's economic and military capabilities, its power differential with India is likely to widen, inducing bigger obstacles in India's geopolitical space.
The fresh US pushing for Indian industry to engage much more deeply with Afghanistan, can help stabilising economically in long run, while the support to extend the Afghanistan-Pakistan trade and transit agreement to the republics of Central Asia, will result in a compact plan for economic growth of the wider group of nations in the region, as trading in Central Asian goods and investing in development of mining and energy resources and the logistic lines extending from India to central Asia via Pakistan and Iran and with energy pipelines between India through Iran,Pakistan, Afghanistan and extending up to Turkmenistan, will bring vast opportunities for economic growth and employment.
For this plan to work, has two crucial points which can make or break the whole idea, first one a mutual settlement of Iran' nuclear threat and second Pakistan's realistic approach in guarding its territory from becoming safe heaven for nourishment of terrorist activities, yes both are difficult, but these are achievable in their own benefits.
As a first step, the Afghan Foreign Minister Rassoul announced that India would hold two investors conferences from around the region, organised by two major Indian chambers of commerce (the Confederation of Indian Industry and the Ficci). India, sensing the importance of its timely role has worked well for improving relationship to maximise its own influence, in Pakistan, Afghanistan and in Iran.
Pakistan now has the best-ever ties with India in recent times and is working on measures to import electricity and gas from India as Prime Minister Gilani counted these steps as a "revolution". He said,"our relations with India, Iran, China, Afghanistan and Russia are very good. We never had such good relations with them ever before," and added, "our trade agreement with India will benefit our economy. We are working on measures to import electricity and gas from India," and besides India, Pakistan is signing agreements for gas with Qatar and Iran. "It is a revolution, isn't it?" he asked.
With Iran, India had always very cordial business and mutual trust relationship except for the pressure mounted by US sanctions, but with removing India off the sanctions list, the US has in real term encouraged India to engage with Iran much more confidentially and it will be boon for India as it will help in opening land connection with Afghanistan via Iranian ports.
Moreover a unhindered trade of oil, agricultural commodities and drugs and medical equipments to Iran, will help Indian voice being heard more reasonably by Iran's power leadership in mutual and international affairs, to some extent also restricting China and Pakistan from twisting the tune.
Isolating Iran from dialogue was a bad choice than keeping the lines open with rational and neutral friends for engaging Iran's participation in world matters, in whichever way or on whatever subjects, be it nuclear or Syria or Afghanistan. Here you have to judge India's controlled role in past and now the possibility of future negotiations. The same theory explains India's cautious role in other important matters in this part of Asia, say it Iraq or Afghanistan or Myanmar or even as regards to Srilanka.
China obviously remained aloof from Afghanistan picture during the decade-long international effort to stabilise Afghanistan, but has moved strongly in the time to reap benefits from its economic agenda, exporting its merchandise and securing bounty out of Afghanistan's untapped mineral resources. As the NATO coalition winds up military engagement and hands over security to local forces, Beijing is gradually stepping up its involvement.
India's Asian pivot throws a challenge for Indian diplomacy, to smooth en and create a makeup in its relationship with the regional nations, for confidence and mutual beneficial trust on a diversified network of international affairs, while also securing the associated nation's security aspect in between themselves as well restricting any bullying China to exercise restraint, while at the same time avoiding such close relationships to show any threat perception to anyone including China.
India Honest admits many of the then incumbent visualisation have more or less taken a shape now, when one can hope for a more relevant Indian pivot that may guide the future destiny of South East Asia, if not the world over. The externals are now more favourably proactive to NaMo's India, than the internals, the explosive and opportunistic opposition. Visionary leadership is on the hot seat, if economic ground work support is availed adequately now, then the future of India will only be, one golden dream coming true in next one decade.