The recent attacks on the Indian armed forces in Manipur and elsewhere in the North-East have to be seen in the context of new developments. The NSCN (K), which had observed a long-term cease-fire in Nagaland and Manipur, has evidently been given the lead position in the UNWSA. It was the NSCN (K) that took the lead in the attack on June 4 when 18 Indian soldiers were martyred. The Indian response was swift, measured and decisive, with an airborne commando night raid on NSCN camps in Myanmar, not too far from the India-Myanmar border.
With National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visiting Myanmar the Myanmar sensitivities will hopefully be addressed. There is little to be achieved by disregarding the sensitivities of a friendly neighbouring country. it also needs to be borne in mind that for the foreseeable future, the army in Myanmar will continue to play a significant role in Myanmar's national life. It would be useful if India's Army Chief, like some of his predecessors, pays an early official visit to Myanmar.
Myanmar is of one China’s major allies in the international arena. Myanmar and China support each other on issues such as human rights, freedom and democracy, which some Western countries use as an excuse to criticise both countries. Myanmar is China’s security barrier and strategic buffer. China’s top security concern is to keep Myanmar from joining the US ‘encirclement of China’ policy.
Myanmar’s strategic geographical location means it is an ideal place from which to pose a threat to China. The United States and Japan seem to be planning to use Myanmar as a wedge between China and India in order to provoke a struggle for profit between the two countries. The United States has also stepped up its efforts to build a ‘c-shaped ring of encirclement’ around China. China needs to maintain good and sustainable bilateral relations with Myanmar to prevent this.
China has shown interest in using Myanmar as a future springboard to the Indian Ocean. Strong bilateral relations will ensure a smooth passage. This is critical for the successful implementation of the Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corridor initiative. As former policy analyst for US Defence Wayne Bert said, ‘China, through economic and military expansion, is establishing a position that strengthens it vis-à-vis both India and Southeast Asia, and improves its access to the Indian Ocean channel’.