India's look south policy has a big stumbling block in China, and this story has three decades old relevance. Indian economic liberalisation, that started in the middle of nineties was preceded by the similar efforts by China two decades earlier. China, under a controlled Communist rule made a steady progress in between as from nowhere in seventies, it has now reached a position of second most valuable economy in the world with a reserve chest of more then one trillion in foreign currency and with economy showing a double digit growth for more then two decades. The economic clout has enabled it become formidable military super power in the world, more dominant in the South East Asia and Africa.
The combined economic and strategic strength has given China enough wings to obtain bigger pool of economic resources, as well participate in trade, commerce and investment in these nations. In various case it worked out to fulfil its commercial and political interest by pressurising or even by bullying them.
In contrast the laggard and limping Indian economy among the Brics nations, played differing role as in November 2012, when the Maldives unilaterally cancelled a 25-year contract with Indian firm GMR for modernising and maintaining Male Airport.
It became painfully evident then that such small countries’ has more competitive options for bilateral commercial agreements due to greater Chinese interest in the region. The new “blue book” policy adopted by the Chinese think tank instigate China to seek deep engagement with more Indian Ocean littoral states, though as of now only on commercial basis and not on military turf.
It is more practical now for Indian Ocean countries to look away from India to meet the development needs of their growing populations, with other options of overseas assistance dominantly from China.
The shifting balance in influence of India among such countries is long time futuristic cause of worry for our Foreign Affairs and Defence Management think tank at the government. The question arises : are not we loosing traditional support base among India centric friends, geographically closer and around us , thus giving grounds to a bullying China, making deeper strategic inrods in our sphere of regional and political dominance ? Why a commercial overture may not soon be converted in a military one later on, as in the case of Pakistan, to encircle India strategically ?