PK Tawari a middle-aged man from Rajasthan’s Shekhawati region, likes to call himself an election analyst says Firstpost, But bluntly put, he is the region’s biggest bookie. Tawari, like many others in the area, knows well, who is forming the next government in Rajasthan? How many seats will Arvind Kejriwal’s party win? Will the Congress improve its tally in Madhya Pradesh?
He is not a cricket bookie, but yes he is an election satoria (bookie) ,is a venerable, omnipresent entity in Rajasthan. He is omnipresent entity in Rajasthan and respected for his material wealth and political intellect. He is found in every nook and corner of Shekhawati,and he gets it right time and again, like in February this year, they had predicted 115 seats for Narendra Modi in Gujarat, and the tally was closely matched .
Tawari boasts, "Bookies of Rajasthan answer every question. We get the overall trend right on most occasions. The forecast for individual seats is correct in 70 percent cases,” .
Tawari's confidence is steeped in logic and based on a method. According to him the election betting isn’t whimsical prophesy, but a raw and desi psephology. How it works ? This has got a reasoning, in Shekhawati and Phalodi, the twin epicentres in Rajasthan, every village has a bookie and several clients. The village bookie is connected to a bigger bookie in the nearest town,and connected to higher and higher level in the state.
The result of this betting chain is that an average bookie in a district gets connected to hundreds of punters in every constituency. This clientele forms his sample size. Depending on the trend among punters, a bookie makes up his mind about the outcome of a contest. This forms the basis of the odds offered by him for an individual seat and for the entire state. All bookies are connected through cellphones. They exchange notes almost every minute. Since betting is a 24X7 activity, the rates keep changing and the final outcome closely tallies with the actual result.
Even the candidates also bet to manipulate the market, because of the deep conviction on punters the floating voters get influenced by satta rates, many candidates try to influence them by pumping money into the market.The faith is so high that sometimes political parties select candidates on the basis of satta rates. Its a confirmed fact that ,Tawari, for instance, was consulted several times by a top leader before finalising candidates.
The desi but logically and scientifically psephology of Tawari and company has answered now the prediction puzzle for 2013, so you don't have to wait till December 8 any more .
Q: Who is winning in Rajasthan ?
Answer : The BJP is likely to win 114-116 seats out of 200. The Congress will be down to 62-64 and others will win 22-23.
Q : Who is ahead in Madhya Pradesh?
Answer : The BJP will manage to win 122—124 seats. Jyotiraditya Scindia’s efforts will help Congress touch 78-80.
Q: What will happen to Arvind Kejriwal ?
Answer : His party would be No 3 with 8-10 seats. The BJP will form the next government with 32-34 seats.
INDIA HONEST argues not to believe a punter, but the past records says ,they are 90% true in most of the predictions in past. Will the scientific logic involved in that the betting being done by the voters themselves and their psephology involved in both betting a nd voting , force us to accept the prediction once more time ? We will only know it better on December 8.